International migration will be affected by the future of work, as evident in three examples. First, as countries develop, they often require fewer agricultural workers to produce the food they consume. Disengaged agricultural workers often move from rural to urban areas in response to this trend. The second example is the growth of global corporations with their own multinational workforces. These companies move staff among the countries in which they operate but may also have factories operating in multiple countries around the world, providing new employment opportunities in lower-income countries. The third example is the importance of information technology, especially artificial intelligence, automatization and digitalization as a driver of productivity. We don’t yet know whether artificial intelligence and robotics will displace workers, driving down need for migration, or introduce new economic niches with rising demand for workers. In either case, though, it will clearly have an effect on the future of work.
The future of work and agriculture: Migration as an adaptation strategy
In 2019, about 27 per cent of the world’s workers were employed in agriculture, down from 44 per cent in 1991 (ILO, 2020a). However, in low-income countries where mechanized farming is less widespread, 65.8 per cent of male and 63.6 per cent of female workers are still employed in agriculture (World Bank, 2021a; World Bank, 2021b). By contrast, only 3.5 per cent of male and 1.9 per cent of female workers in high income countries are employed in that sector (World Bank, 2021c; World Bank, 2021d). Farmers in low-income countries generally have lower-than-average incomes and often grow little more than can feed their own families, resorting to internal migration to urban areas or international migration to support their family, particularly in conditions of persistent or recurrent droughts (see Rural development, internal migration and resiliency). When they migrate, ex-farmers everywhere are most likely to accept so-called 3-D (dirty, dangerous, difficult) jobs that locals are less inclined to perform, whether it be in rural to urban migration or migration to another country.
The future of work and multinational cooperation: Implications for low-skilled migrant workers
The globalization of the labour market, as multinational corporations increasingly see their workforces in global rather than national terms, influences current and future migration. The unprecedented rate at which corporations use contingent labour and contract out assignments also has an influence. In manufacturing, it is common for components of a single product to be made in several different countries, through subsidiaries of the same company or by contractors. The corporate interest in moving its labour force to meet the demands of this type of scheduling across subsidiaries and contractors often runs into conflict with immigration policies.
Governments are often willing to accommodate the interest of these corporations in moving their executives, managers, professionals and staff with specialized knowledge of their business practices into positions throughout the world, regardless of their nationality. More controversial is the international mobility of less skilled personnel, often to work on contracts that these companies receive. Whether these movements involve companies building infrastructure in lesser developed countries, companies vying for contracts in other higher income countries, or subcontractors applying for work visas for computer programmers and other specialists, they raise questions about the meaning of fair trade and the potential competition of foreign workers with domestic labour.
The future of work and artificial intelligence: Challenges and opportunities for migrant workers
Information technology in general, and artificial intelligence more specifically, will also change the future of work and have implications for migration. “The development of automation enabled by technologies including robotics and artificial intelligence brings the promise of higher productivity, increased efficiencies, safety, and convenience, but these technologies also raise difficult questions about the broader impact of automation on jobs, skills, wages, and the nature of work itself” (Manyika, 2017).