Bilateral, regional and international trade regimes are beginning to have a profound effect on migration. The European Union’s evolution of a harmonized migration regime to serve as a counterpart to its customs union is one example. The agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020 includes migration-related provisions permitting freer movement of professionals, executives and others, providing international services from signatory countries (see Chapter 16 of the agreement). The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) is another example, with trade in services often requiring greater freedom for service providers to move internationally.
However, trade agreements do not necessarily refer to migration when they set out the terms for mobility of persons across international borders. For example, the GATS agreement uses the term “movement of natural persons” in discussing this category. It defines natural persons are those “who are either service suppliers (such as independent professionals) or who work for a service supplier and who are present in another [World Trade Organization] member to supply a service” (World Trade Organization, n.d.). In other words, these individuals continue to be employed (or are self-employed) in their country of origin but undertake the work in another country. The agreement explicitly excludes people who are seeking jobs in the employment market of the destination country, as well as those seeking permanent residence.
The relationship between trade and migration is complex. Historically, trade and migration were seen as substitutes – if trade between two countries increased, migration would decrease. Political leaders sometimes justified eliminating trade barriers by arguing that such policies would reduce the need for migration by providing greater economic opportunities at home. The former President of Mexico famously stated during the negotiations of NAFTA that Mexico would prefer to send its tomatoes to the United States, rather than its tomato pickers. But the situation is more complex than this. Tomato pickers and others from Mexico still emigrated in the 1990s and early 2000s because wages were higher in the United States than in Mexico, even with freer trade arrangements. Over the long term, overall changes in the economy – many related to trade – did provide increased economic opportunities, slowing emigration in the late 2000s. Moreover, trade in services can be complementary to migration. The movement of natural persons regulated by trade agreements is similar to some forms of migration. And increases in migration can increase trade between countries, as migrants seek products made in their countries of origin, help companies overcome barriers to trade through their knowledge of the language and cultural norms of both countries, and invest in enterprises that export and/or import goods and services.