The requirement that governments be accountable for the investment of public funds makes it more important to demonstrate the merits of a policy and its programmes. In formulating policy solutions, one useful discipline is to use a theoretical model (logic model) or framework that helps articulate how the policy and its programmes and interventions will work, and how the policy is expected to cause the desired effect.
The application of programme theory in policy formulation, which is based on Theory of Change, constitutes just one such approach. Programme theory is often crafted at the evaluation phase and is used by evaluators as the basis for measuring programme impacts. Logically, however, the policy formulation phase is the appropriate time to describe the intended impacts of a programme on its beneficiaries; define what will cause impacts, and outline the intervention that is intended to be executed, as well as setting out the inputs and assumptions that would underlie a successful implementation. If the expected inputs change because, for example, there are inadequate funds, or a law cannot be passed, the policy will need to be revised and the theory be reformulated. Programme theory can assist in providing a nuanced understanding for stakeholders of what change is expected and why. It is also useful for justifying effort and resources to support policy decision-making and to seek donor support where necessary.
As implementation proceeds (see Stage 6: Policy Implementation) and monitoring is put in place, the assumptions that are made at the policy formulation stage will be put to the test, for instance by parliamentary or media scrutiny, or through a formal evaluation. A rigorous approach to articulating the programme theory, including the expected changes of behaviour from beneficiaries/target groups, will be a helpful anchor to the subsequent stages of implementation and evaluation.
It is perfectly feasible that programme theory considerations – causality, assumptions and dependencies – will have been addressed during the assessment phase and articulated in the policy formulation documentation without reference to programme theory. However, applying the theory-based model can bring additional discipline, support robust analysis, and be a useful tool to support the phases of dialogue with stakeholders towards agreed solutions.